April 16, 2014

Soccer Trading

I leave here a quite successfully trading system I have used in soccer, so I advise anyone who wants to try, to use low stakes at first and if you really come to the conclusion of its profitability, increase gradually.

I would like to warning “Holy Grail” hunters that here will not find any miraculous system.

Early in the game and after a brief analysis of the traditional odds i lay the draw, then do back on the under 2.5 goals market, this is always done in a 60/40 proportion, put the lay draw with 60% and back to under 2.5 goals with 40%.

Normally i do not go into games where the under 2.5 odds are lower to 1.9, also avoid doing lay the draw with odds greater than 4.0, but sometimes I got to go to 4.5, depends on the teams that are playing.

When the game starts, the under 2.5 goals odds is moving faster in its descent that odds for lay the draw, allowing us immediately to leave the game with a profit even at the end of first half if result is 0 – 0.

If there are no goals in the first half, this system is practically foolproof.

Now we’re talking about the good things, if the game is balanced between two teams, where there are no odds of less than 2.0 the ideal is to go up to 15/20 minutes of play and if goals not happen, we came out with a profit of 5 / 7 € ( stakes of € 100, 60/40) … if eventually some of the teams score, the odds for a draw up and allows us to cover the loss that we have in under 2.5 goals market, is almost certain that we will still leave with a profit of 1 / 3 €, at worst come out with a few loss cents.

If the game is unbalanced between two teams, question is different. If the favorite score first regardless of the time when the goal happens, we always leave with good profit … the odds movement for the draw will protect the losses incurred in under 2.5 market and still remaining 15/40 € (on average) that will be our profit.

Now comes the negative point of this method, and if the underdog scores first? There it is … well, if the underdog scores first you have to take losses, there will be no profit … the odds for the draw will remain almost static and may even go down a few ticks, so we will not be profitable to protect us from loss caused by rising odds of under 2.5 goals, the damage will probably be around 15/30 € in this case …

To maximize profits in this system the ideal would be that the first goal was scored between 35 and 45 minutes, because the odds for under 2.5 would rise substantially and become quite close to the baseline by which we made back, then just do your lay and this market is void of himself with a small loss or even with a few cents of profit.
Without under 2.5 is only earning the rewards generated by the rise in the odds for a draw after the goal, in this case the profit will increase if the favorite score, if is not favorite losses boil down to small amounts.

The is best to always leave at the end of the first half, the greatest adventurers can arrive 60 minutes thereafter the decline in the under 2.5 goals no longer covers the descent lay the draw and we are almost certain to enter the redbook. Once it is scored the first goal usually wait 30 seconds to 1 minute for the market to calm down and then leave the game.

Here is an example of a successful trading on Betfair:

Soccer Trading

Soccer Trading

In this game between Barcelona and Huelva (unbalanced teams) went out 44 minutes with 0-0, and approximately € 13 of profit, Barcelona finally score the goal on 52 minutes, if it had been until then the profit would be in order of € 50 …

I await for your comments!